Atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from the Fukushima-Daichii nuclear power plant
CEREA, joint laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EdF R&D
Victor Winiarek, Marc Bocquet
Yelva Roustan, Camille Birman, Pierre Tran
Map of ground deposition of caesium-137 for the Fukushima-Daichii
accident (updated 20 June 2013).
The simulation was performed with a specific version of the
numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model
Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and
physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [6,7,8,9].
The source term has been estimated by the assimilation of activity
concentrations in the air as well as activity deposited on the ground
[1,2].
The magnitude of the deposition field is uncertain and the simulated
values of deposited radionuclides could be significantly different
from the actual deposition. In particular, the source term remains
uncertain, athough its uncertainty has been narrowed down thanks to
data assimilation.
Other results obtained by collaborators about
the Fukushima radionuclides dispersion accident are references below [3,4,5].
Map of ground deposition of caesium-137 for the Chernobyl accident
The simulation was performed with a specific version of the
numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport
model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisation used for the
transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in
[6,7,8,9].
The source term has been estimated by the assimilation of activity
concentrations in the air [8].
The magnitude of the deposition field is uncertain and the
simulated value of deposited radionuclides could be different
from the actual from the actual deposition. However the source term is
much better known than for Fukushima-Daichii. A comparison with deposition
measurements will be conducted to evaluate the simulation.
Movie of the Fukushima-Daichii activity in the air (caesium-137,
ground level, updated 20 June 2013)
The simulation was performed with a specific version of the
numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport
model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the
transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in
[6,7,8,9].
The source term has been estimated by the assimilation of activity
concentrations in the air as well as activity deposited on the ground
[1,2].
The magnitude of activity concentration field is uncertain and could be
significantly different from the actual one. In particular, the source term remains uncertain.
Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they
are likely to be revised as new information become available to
better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can
be used to evaluate the model simulation results.
Dispersion of radionuclides in the ocean: see the coastal
simulations of the Sirocco team
here.
References (updated 9 January 2014):
Estimation of Errors in the Inverse Modeling of Accidental
Release of Atmospheric Pollutant: Application to the
Reconstruction of the Cesium-137 and Iodine-131 Source Terms
from the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant
V. Winiarek, M. Bocquet, O. Saunier and A. Mathieu. J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres,
117, D05122, 2012.
Estimation of the caesium-137 source term from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
power plant using a consistent joint assimilation of air concentration and
deposition observations
V. Winiarek, M. Bocquet, N. Duhanyan, Y. Roustan, O. Saunier and
A. Mathieu. Submitted, Atmo. Env., 82, 268-279, 2014.
An inverse modeling method to assess the source term of the
Fukushima nuclear power plant
accident using gamma dose rate observations
O. Saunier, A. Mathieu, D. Didier, M. Tombette, D. Quélo, V. Winiarek, and M. Bocquet.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403--11421, 2013.
Assessment of the amount of Cesium-137 released into the Pacific
Ocean after the Fukushima accident and analysis of its
dispersion in Japanese coastal waters.
C. Estournel, E. Bosc, M. Bocquet, C. Ulses,
P. Marsaleix, V. Winiarek, I. Osvath,
C. Nguyen, T. Duhaut, F. Lyard, H.
Michaud, and F. Auclair, Journal of Geophysical Research
Oceans, 117, C11014, 2012.
État de la modélisation pour simuler
l'accident nucléaire de la centrale Fukushima Daiichi.
Mathieu, A., I. Korsakissok, D. Quélo,
O. Saunier, J. Groëll, D. Didier, D. Corbin, J. Denis, M. Tombette,
V. Winiarek, M. Bocquet, E. Quentric, J.-P. Benoit. Pollut. Atmos.,
217, in press, 2013.
Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation
after a radiological accidental atmospheric release
V. Winiarek, J. Vira, M.
Bocquet, M. Sofiev and O. Saunier. Atmos. Env., 45, 2944-2955, 2011.
Targeting of observations for accidental atmospheric release monitoring
R. Abida and M. Bocquet. Atmos. Env., 43, 6312-6327, 2009.
Inverse modelling-based reconstruction of the Chernobyl source term available for long-range transport
X. Davoine and M. Bocquet,
Atmo. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007.
Validation of the Polyphemus platform on the ETEX, Chernobyl and
Algeciras cases
