Data assimilation for the detection and attribution in climate sciences
The first paper of the DADA project (Data assimilation, Detection and Attribution), led by Alexis Hannart, has been accepted by Climatic Change: DADA: Data Assimilation for the Detection and Attribution of Weather- and Climate-related Events. The preprint is available here. Alexis Hannart, Alberto Carrassi, Michael Ghil, Philippe Naveau, Manuel Pulido, Juan Ruiz, and Pierre Tandeo are co-authors. The paper proposes to use data assimilation outputs in operational centres of numerical weather forecast in order to assign likelihoods to factual and counter-factual models. That offers a potentially very efficient way to quantitatively address the attribution issue.